Lucid stock forecast

Rate this

Lucid stock price history?

The price history of Lucid stock is different from that of prior years. The price reached a peak level in 2021 but started losing its stability. Such a fluctuation suggests a huge demand, but Lucid couldn’t meet it. The new company often faces resource shortages if they have found unexpected demand. 

However, Lucid started to boom again at the opening of 2022, which indicates their management dedication. Stable management is one of the important factors that influence stock price. For a new company, it isn’t easy to keep longer stable management. So, price volatility is expected for lucid stock.

For example, if promoters often withdraw cash from the company or leave it, it gives a negative message to stock investors. Share trader thinks the company has no future or could collapse in the upcoming time, ultimately creating negative hype.

Competition is common in every industry. Therefore, it would be biased to say that the lucid stock price is falling due to big car brands. An established brand always gains a competitive advantage regarding market dominance. The young companies can’t take that place within a short time. Therefore, lucid should make a middle finger management strategy.

Middle finger management helps a new company gain a market by avoiding maximum challenges

Say Tesla develops an updated hydrogen Airbus. Tesla has long-term customer trust, so they can easily capture the market. To counter it, if Lucid develops hydrogen bicycles or such middle-class products, it can capture the market with limited challenges.

Big brands mean high prices, which indicates for the wealthy class. However, a market consists of diverse consumers who want to buy with limited money.

However, we can’t be bullish on penetration marketing because it depends on the management team. So, my analysis of the lucid stock would be neutral. 

Lucid stock financials?

Past financial performance plays a crucial role in stock trading. It displays how the company has performed in previous years. Historical performance is not like Newton’s motion law, which always works.

However, historical performance helps us estimate an assumption of what stock performance could be in the future. 

Below, I have given a detailed financial analysis of lucid stock, which will help us forecast stock prices. 

Lucid stock P/E ratio?

Lucid’s price-to-earnings ratio shows a volatile nature & inconsistent with the prior years. A volatile P/E ratio is expected for a new company because it needs time to mature. No standard value suggests a good P/E ratio for stock investment. Usually, a lower & stable value is good for stock investment.

P/E ratioYears
  Lucid stock pe ratio

But, in stock trading, the 20 to 25% P/E ratio is considered favorable, whereas Lucid shows above 35%. So, shareholders have to pay more price against intrinsic value.

Will it help Lucid Group increase its stockholders? No, because they will consider it a risky stock investment. Therefore, Lucid must lower its P/E ratio.

However, Lucid stock seems more competitive than Rivian stock. Rivian reportedly reported a negative price-to-earnings ratio, which is not good for stock investors. Rivian faced more sales challenges than Lucid.

Now the question is, Can Lucid keep its sales pace? Will Lucid Group come up with a trending product? Lucid must answer these questions to gain customer confidence. So, my analysis of Lucid stock is neutral again.   

P/B ratio?

The P/B ratio of Lucid stock shows volatile natures & above 1. Lucid is inconsistent with prior years & repeatedly suggests overvaluation. A higher P/b ratio means investors expect better stock performance. If Lucid outperforms, more investors will come to buy, increasing cash.

P/B ratioYears
P/B ratio

Can Lucid satisfy shareholders’ expectations? The historical ratio suggests no. Lucid’s price-to-book value ratio fluctuated over the years & continuously struggled to fix it.

However, we can’t be bullish that Lucid stock will crash because it could vary depending on future earning potential & accounting methods. The P/B ratio displays the partial picture of stock performance. Therefore, my analysis is neutral on Lucid stock again.

PEG ratio?

The PEG ratio of Lucid stock doesn’t fall under the range of 1, which suggests their earning challenges. Usually, a PEG ratio of up to 1 means a safe stock investment. Lucid Group displays a price earning-to-growth ratio above one from 2021 to 2022, which indicates their structural problems.

PEG ratioYears
PEG ratio

The structural difficulty is a short-term problem that alone can’t display whether the stock will crash. As a new company, such a challenge is expected.

However, Lucid stock indicates a negative PEG ratio in 2023, which means they have serious earning problems. Lucid is suffering from generating liquid money due to limited orders, or the market doesn’t prefer Lucid’s product.

Will Lucid stock crash shortly? A PEG ratio could fluctuate for different reasons & we have no internal reach on that. So, saying Lucid stock will crash would be a bullish statement.

So, my analysis is neutral on Lucid stock price.        

EPS ratio?

Lucid stock shows negative EPS ratio from 2021 to 2023. A negative EPS means weak financial performance. Cash shortage create temporary imbalance between working capital management.

A weak working capital suggest more obligations than current assets.

EPS ($)Years
-1.53   2023
– 6.412021
EPS ratio

Usually, positive EPS is a good sign for stock investment but it doesn’t mean potential crash. New company faces different types of challenges such as few orders, inflation, political instability in new market.

Today’s Investment heavily influenced by geopolitics. Historical performance just assures 60% where 40% investment success depends on political situations.

History suggest stock become profitable with negative EPS reports. For example, Tesla had negative EPS several years before becoming a profitable stock in 2020.

So, Lucid doesn’t seem short-term investment instead you have wait for long-term before making any significant profit. 

P/S ratio?

Lucid group P/S ratio is not better than its peer company such as Tesla, BYD, NIO or Rivian. Investors pay comparatively more money against $1 than its competitors. Lucid is a new company with limited market presence. So, shareholder will not pay more to buy Lucid stock than its peers. Lucid group must balance price to sales ratio so that investors don’t consider it too expensive or undervalued stock.  

P/S ratioYears
P/S ratio

Lucid must find out the gap among competitors product pool & should implement production capacity to get competitive advantage.

For example, Lucid can target up to middle class customer by making cheap product. To make lower price, they must ensure raw materials for lower resources.

We can’t expect how the management of lucid group approach. So, my analysis is neutral again on lucid stock price.

Lucid group market cap?

Lucid is a new electric car-selling company with good growth potential. Industrial trends are crucial in tracking market attention for the Lucid group. Clean energy has a promising future & it is expecting an upward trend. 

Lucid market share isn’t big enough to catch giant brands such as Tesla, BYD, and Volkswagen Group, but it will gain momentum at the end of 2023. A trending industry creates some opportunity for a similar type of new company. But we can’t predict Lucid market growth because geopolitics heavily influences clean energy.

Facts suggest Lucid must develop a new innovative product with a lower price to expand the market. For example, hydrogen cars have become an updated & better alternative to EV cars. Can Lucid catch market trends with lower prices? 

A stable market growth depends on management & favorable government policies. Lucid can minimize internal management conflict but has no control over political instability.

 So, we can’t predict how their management approach & we can’t be bullish on this. 

CompetitorsMarket cat-2021Market cap-2022Market cap-2023Market cap-2024
Volkswagen Group5678
Lucid Group00.10.20.3
Lucid group market cap

Lucid stock ratios?  

The Return on equity ratio suggests Lucid needs to make more profit from stockholders’ money. Lucid is unable to generate cash inflows from long-term investments. However, a negative return on equity doesn’t boldly suggest that Lucid stock will crash in the near future. 

Lucid invested massive money in restructuring to improve the business, which created a short-term profit shortage. Forecasting Lucid stock based on ROI would disclose a partial scenario. 

The debt-to-capital ratio gradually lower from 2021 to 2023. Usually, below one debt-to-capital ratio is considered safe for investment & Lucid’s ratio falls under that range. Lucid doesn’t depend on debt money, which is suitable for stock investment. 

Return on equity ratio (%)-18.36-22.10-18.36
Debt-to-Capital Ratio (%)0.380.740.80
Operating Margin ratio (%)-22.35-18.24-23.07
Enterprise Value to EBIT37.3931.7437.39
Interest Coverage RatioNot availableNot available-1876.52
Acid test ratio4.0611.461.60
Lucid stock ratios  

However, Lucid’s Return on equity ratio indicates a profit shortage, which means Lucid is facing difficulty managing the funds. 

So, based on the historical performance of the debt-to-capital ratio, we can’t be bullish on the stock price.

The operating margin ratio has shown a volatile nature over the years. Fluctuation with negative trends indicates a management approach to fix it. But Lucid fails to fix it & continuously struggles for cash. Liquid money assures operating efficiency where shortages create an imbalance in working capital. 

Can Lucid recover its operating margin in the near future? It is possible but would be challenging. 

Lucid’s enterprise value to EBIT ratio seems stable over the years with slight fluctuations. However, Lucid’s enterprise value to EBIT suggests overvaluations, which could generate more profit in the short term, but in the long term, it could be a barrier. 

Overvaluation increases investors’ expectations, but undervaluation could reduce investors’ confidence. So, lucid must balance the Enterprise Value to EBIT ratio for safe investment. 

Lucid’s interest coverage ratio is not available for 2022 & 2023. Usually, a company only discloses ICR if they continuously struggle to pay interest expenses from operating profit. So, Lucid has a negative profit & it seems like it could not be recoverable within a short time. 

Lucid must recover from negative trends to influence investors & positive market sentiment. However, it is a matter of management & we can’t predict how they approach it. 

The quick ratio of Lucid seems solvent to pay its quick liability. Usually, a $1 liquid asset against a $1 quick liability is a safe investment point for the stock. Lucid suggests more liquid assets than its liabilities, which suggests solid financial solvency. 

The historical performance of the ratio suggests mixed performance for Lucid stock. Ratios are just one parameter that can’t determine stock profitability. Therefore, we can’t be bullish that Lucid stock price will fall.

Lucid Income statement?

The financial performance of Lucid is negative. Lucid needs to generate more sales to make a profit.

However, Lucid’s sales volume increased over the years, as did its operating expenses. Higher operating expense means an imbalance between current assets & current liabilities. Lucid is facing an order shortage due to some unavoidable reasons. We can’t predict how long they will face difficulty, but recovering from less order needs proper strategic planning.

Sales revenue ($)Gross Profit ($)Operating Expenses ($)Net Profit ($)Years
595.3 million-591.3 million-1.18 billion-586 million2023
1.6 billion– 381.6 million-1.98 billion-1.3 billion2022
232.3 million-445.8 million-847.7 million-785.7 million2021
Lucid Income statement  

For example, Lucid can focus on less competitive EV products with affordable prices. But we can’t be bullish on it because it is a matter of management.


The information provided in this article is author’s view & only for educational purposes. Also, the intention of this article is not hurting any stock analyst. This is not a sponsor post & not an investment advice. Do your research before making any important financial decision. Therefore, will not be liable for your financial loss.

    Leave a Reply

    Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

    Main Menu