Nvidia stock projections: Will Nvidia Climb to $600?

Nvidia stock projections surprised investors. Analysts have given different forecasting but most of them are bullish on Nvidia stock forecasting. 

Nvidia is a semiconductor giant & stock experts agree that Nvidia will be able to keep its current growth pace. Historical data indicate that Nvidia did not perform well during the pandemic. Moreover, AMD & Intel could be a tough competitor for Nvidia. 

Then, war tension between China & America has a significant impact on Nvidia’s stock market. Do analysts less emphasize these risk factors? 

As a stock investor, your mind may ask you the above questions, but you need help deciding whether Nvidia is a good stock to buy.

Are you really interested in knowing the accurate Nvidia share forecast? If the answer is yes, then you are in the right article. In this blog post, you will learn details on Nvidia stock price forecast & how macroeconomic risk impacts Nvidia shares.

Let’s start with the following. 

Key takeaways:

• Nvidia has the potential to reach $600 per share
• If the stock price skyrockets, then Nvidia may split its stock again.
• Nvidia has a positive industry trend & it is growing.
• Political instability negatively impacts Nvidia’s stock price.
• The most important factor is that Nvidia performed poorly during COVID-19. This performance indicates Nvidia’s weakness against the pandemic.  

Nvidia stock price chart?

The overall price history chart for Nvidia stock shows an upward trend. This growth indicates the company’s strong financial solvency & growing investors’ confidence. 

However, Nvidia stock lost price by about 50% from mid-2019 to 2020, which suggests weak performance against the pandemic. Stock performance during any pandemic signals how it will perform in the upcoming epidemic or any recession. 

Can we expect any Covid-19 situation again? It is hard to predict, but recent inflation may create a macroeconomic crisis. 

Find a question on how macroeconomic factors affect stock price. Let’s see the following example.

Henry distributes his monthly income of $10,000 into three ratios: Need, savings, and investment under a stable economy. Henry allocates 70% money on living expenses, 20% of money saved for the future & 10% for investment. 

So, Henry invested 10% of idle money into stock purchases in a normal economy. That means the company is collecting more cash from investors, which increases stock demand. 

In the opposite scenario, i.e., during high inflation & mass layoffs, people allocate maximum income to maintain living costs. The economic downturn also creates a negative hype among investors, i.e., they assume little chance of getting a good return on investment.  

As a result, people will invest less money in the stock market & expense more on needed items, which reduces stock demand & increases the liquidity crisis for the company. 

Nvidia’s poor performance during COVID-19 doesn’t assure good performance in future crises. This negative performance is a key factor for stock investors.

Overall, the price chart shows a promising return for Nvidia’s stock investment. 

Nvidia stock split history?

Nvidia split its stock five times to increase shareholder numbers. Nvidia is the market leader in the semiconductor industry & its growing market acceptability makes its stock too pricy. The current stock price of Nvidia is $488.30, which is only affordable for some investors. 

Therefore, interested investors may ask, will Nvidia stock split again? There is no official announcement, but we can expect one more stock split. How? 

If you notice the stock split history, you can see two stocks become three (2007), then one stock become four (2021). It means Nvidia faced a liquidity shortage at that time; therefore, it split shares to collect cash. 

In the stock market, there are three types of investors: mixed, sole & small.

• Mixed investors

Mixed investors don’t focus on particular investments but rather emphasize option investments.

Say David wants to invest $20,000 into a profitable industry. David finds three industries are going to trend in the upcoming times: Semiconductor, AI & EV. How David, as a mixed investor, invests his $20,000. Let’s see.

But a reverse scenario could happen if there is a high price. There are three giants in the semiconductor industry: AMD, Intel & Nvidia. If AMD & Intel offer more affordable prices, then David will buy their stock instead of investing in Nvidia.

So, from a business perspective, Nvidia could split stock to lower competitors’ influence. 

• Sole investors

Sole investors only focus on one investment, which could be the stock market, Gold or Bitcoin.   

Sole investors, also called bullish, they stick to one particular market segment. These types of investors can move out from Nvidia if there are alternatives, such as similar types of start-up stocks. 

Are you surprised? How can new start-ups be profitable stocks? A successful stock investment depends more on industry trends than past performance. Can you remember Zoom video communication? Zoom stock skyrocketed during the pandemic due to unprecedented customer acceptability. 

Therefore, whether a company is new or old doesn’t matter if they have dedicated talent & positive industry trends. 

So, considering the above scenario, Nvidia can split stock again.     

• Small investors

Small investors are the maximum number with medium money. They don’t have any particular industry preference & buy most of the stock under an affordable range. They work like a break-even point, buying maximum shares at lower prices.

So, Nvidia can increase the share number to increase stockholders & liquid money.

In short, Nvidia will split stock if they need a large number of customers & cash. 

Nvidia market cap?

Nvidia’s market revenue grows positively from 2015 to 2019 which is about 150%. This market expansion indicates the strategic business policy that helps them to grow a strong customer base.  

But, Nvidia failed to keep an upward trend in 2020 & fell from the rising stage. This fall indicates strong competition from similar companies. Maybe competitors offer similar products with lower prices, or the operating cost of Nvidia exceeds sales revenue. 

Surprisingly, Nvidia is back to an upward trend in the next years with a big market boom. Then, again, boom, about double & become a reliable semiconductor company. Semiconductor is a trending industry that has huge potential to grow in the upcoming years. Nvidia understands this trend & focuses on more market expansion by increasing sales amount & they will become successful in 2023 in gaining more market. 

Overall, Nvidia has grown its market by 476% over 9 years, which shows a strong business commitment. If Nvidia keeps this pace, then Nvidia stock will be a high-performing stock even if it can reach $600 per share.

However, keeping a similar pace would take a lot of work for Nvidia due to high competition. Nvidia is now distribution phase, so fluctuation is coming. 

Have a question on your mind? Want more clarification on why market volatility is coming?

Market cycle?

Have you ever heard about the market cycle? There are 4 phases: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution & Markdown. 

• Accumulation

In the Accumulation phase, the market starts to sell products at lower prices. The prime objective is gaining market traction without focusing on revenue. 

If you notice the revenue graph, you will see that 2015 & 2016 belong to the lowest level with minimum market gains. So, these two years are Nvidia’s accumulation phase. 

• Markup

In this phase, the company will gain more investors & win customer confidence. As a result, the market cap will continue to rise.

In the market cap chart, 2017 & 2018 are the markup phases of Nvidia. 

• Distribution

In this phase, the market will start to boom & become a giant source. Investors will get maximum ROI & product will sell at a higher price. 

In the graph, 2019 is the distribution phase for Nvidia. 

• Markdown

The market starts to fall due to less interest, or investors may fear losing money or a negative hype among customers. The company must come up with a new project or idea with a positive trend to overcome the markdown phase. 

In the market cap chart, 2020 is the markdown phase for Nvidia. This markdown stage is also called accumulation for a new market cycle, i.e., after markdown, the company start with a markup level. 

You will see a 60% market cap increase in 2021, which shows Nvidia’s strong comeback. So, 2021 is Nvidia’s new markup phase. 

But Nvidia doesn’t stop; it captures more than 60% of the market in 2022 & keep this pace at 2023. These two years are the distribution phase for Nvidia. 

According to the market cycle, Nvidia now faces the markdown phase, which means stocks are going to lose money. To keep the current pace, Nvidia must find some strategic solution & they did it.

Nvidia’s recent artificial intelligence and machine learning inclusion into GPUs make it well suited for workload. Besides, Nvidia is entering some trending industries such as automotive, healthcare, and robotics sectors, which will help to grow market share. 

If Nvidia becomes successful in these new projects, then the price of the stock will be record-breaking. 

Nvidia stock price forecast?

Analysts are bullish on Nvidia stock & predicted significant growth over time. Nvidia’s recent AI integration & planning to enter a new market are the key indicators.

Below, the table provides details on what different experts forecast on Nvidia stock price.

Nvidia stock price prediction for 2024

Nvidia stock price prediction for 2025

Nvidia stock price prediction for 2026

Nvidia stock price prediction for 2027 to 2030

The impact of geopolitical tension is long-term. Stacy Rasgon closely observes the war’s impact on the chip market. Recent tension between the US & China will affect Nvidia’s stock price. Because economic sanctions negatively disrupt the supply chain & create an instant imbalance between operating costs & sales.

China is a major foreign chip market for Nvidia; about 10% of revenue comes from it. Then Europe is the second foreign revenue source, about 9%. 

Stable Europe means the end of the Russia & Ukraine war, which couldn’t seem a short-term solution. Then, strategic ties between China & Russia can create a new semiconductor source that ultimately becomes a competitor of Nvidia. 

Long-term stable prices could be a challenge for Nvidia stock, but they can lower risk by entering new foreign markets, say India. India is a rising economic power in Asia & its growing rate is unprecedently high. 

Though the World Semiconductor Council reported a 2% global semiconductor market, it forecasted many positive key metrics that strongly suggest India could be a bigger semiconductor consumer & can replace China. 

The image is showing projected semiconductor market growth in India by Statista. Statista survey for overall semiconductor products & the trend shows promising growth. According to this survey report, India needs 12 years to beat China if India has a stable political situation. Statista forecasted about 89% growth from 2016 to 2027 & if this happens, then that will be a new market for Nvidia. 

The most surprising fact is that this projected growth could accelerate faster after 2027. All these data suggest India’s growing customer demand & stable purchasing power can lower geopolitical risk on semiconductor products.

Nvda forecast 5 years?

We can’t predict how Nvidia manage political instability between rivals, but we can estimate an assumption based on war risk factors. It doesn’t matter how financially strong Nvidia is; no stock follows an upward or downward trend all the time. 

Say, Nvidia stock has 7 factors favourable & 3 factors that could down price (risk factors are taken based on my analysis). 

Risk = Likelihood × Impact

        =7× 3

        =21 

The forecasting stock price ratio would be 79:21, which means 79% growth & 21% down from the current market value. 

So, Nvidia stock’s maximum value after 5 years= Current stock value + Current stock value × growth ratio

= $488 + $488 × 79%

= $488 + $385.52

=$873.52

Nvidia stock’s minimum value after 5 years= Current stock value – Current stock value × risk

= $488 – $488 × 21%

= $488 – $102.48

=$385.52

Is Nvidia a good stock to buy?

Yes, Nvidia is a good stock to buy. Nvidia has a dedicated management team, enough financial capability to enter new markets & huge industry trends. They always try to find new markets to keep the growth pace. 

However, before buying Nvidia stock, keep in mind the following things.

• Nvidia stock is too pricy, which could be a risky investment.  
• Semiconductor is a massive industry with positive trends. So, avoiding competition would be difficult for Nvidia.
• How will Nvidia stock perform under tough competition? We have no answer to this question because Nvidia is now leading the market.
• We are now facing a recession & if it lasts for the long term, how does Nvidia perform? That’s a big question.
• If the economy becomes stable, i.e. the purchasing power of money increases, then how did Nvidia fix its dividend? Overprice will directly conflict with the time value of money because the $1 dividend during inflation is not equal to the regular economy’s $1.    

Overall, Nvidia is a good stock to buy, giving you a maximum return. 

Concluding Thought

Nvidia is undoubtedly a safe stock investment. It has strong financial backup & upward price trend over the long term. Past performance doesn’t reflect actual profit, but long-term steady growth is a good sign. There is no instant price hike & fall of Nvidia shares; rather, it grows at a double rate. Therefore, Nvidia’s stock forecasting price of $600 seems logical.

However, my analysis has found two major negative risk factors that could significantly reduce Nvidia’s stock value. 

1. Perform during Pandemic

If any stock rises in the epidemic, then we can expect similar growth in the next similar crisis. What does historical data suggest regarding Nvidia stock? Negative performance. So, Nvidia must think about the Pandemic.

2. Macroeconomic risk

Inflation & mass layoffs are negative signs for the stock market. People lost income & mainly focused on living expenditure. They also fear for stock market crash. 

Does Nvidia perform well under macroeconomic risk? Yes, they perform excellently. But, macroeconomic risk impacts stock price gradually, so the question is, how long can Nvidia keep its growth pace?

Therefore, to be an outperforming stock, Nvidia must find a solution to overcome the above challenges.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Who is Nvidia’s biggest competitor?

AMD & Intel are the biggest competitors for Nvidia. AMD & Intel both manufacture similar semiconductor products at competitive prices. 

Nvidia competitors’ stock?

There is no fixed competitor for Nvidia stock because semiconductor is a vast industry & every year, new companies enter to capture potential trends.

However, depending on the specific market segment, Nvidia stock will face the following competitors at present.

Disclaimer

The information provided in this article is author’s view & only for educational purposes. Also, the intention of this article is not hurting any stock analyst. This is not a sponsor post & not an investment advice. Do your research before making any important financial decision. Therefore, FinanceIdeas.org will not be liable for your financial loss.