Tesla’s share price forecast is bullish, according to renewed analysts. They mainly emphasize EV growing trends & successful market expansion of Tesla. But, limited resources, battery technology & geopolitics are some crucial factors that will heavily affect Tesla’s stock price.
Will Tesla have an alternative Chinese market? Does the USA have enough plans to boost EV products? Tesla must answer these questions.
Whether Tesla’s share price reaches $380 or above depends on qualitative & quantitative performance. Historical data doesn’t suggest Tesla as a buy stock or 100x growth share.
So, as a stock investor, should you buy Tesla or look for alternative EV stock? For short-term gains, No. For long-term profit, Yes.
You may need clarification now & want more analysis to decide whether Tesla stock should be a part of your portfolio. Am I right?
If the answer is yes, then you are in the right blog article. In this article, you will learn every factor associated with Tesla stock growth & possible negative impact on Tesla’s share price.
Let’s start with the following.
Key takeaways:
- Tesla stock growth heavily depends on cheap resources & battery technology.
- Tesla is not for short-term investment but rather for long-term gains.
- Tesla stock goes down if macroeconomic factors worsen.
- Historical financial data doesn’t suggest Tesla would be a 100x stock. But there are some signals to be a profitable stock.
- Geopolitical tension will not help Tesla to outperform stock. Rather, it will increase EV prices.
- Tesla must ensure an affordable EV price than fuel cars & it is only possible if there are government subsidies or lower inflation.
Tesla PE ratio?
The P/E ratio isn’t consistent with prior years. It fluctuates, which indicates overvaluation. Usually, a P/E ratio between 15 to 25 is suitable for stock investment. 2021 & 2022 seem manageable ratios, but they started rising again in 2023.
| P/E ratio | Years |
| 83.46 | 2023 |
| 30.60 | 2022 |
| 306.70 | 2021 |
| 1,274.10 | 2020 |
| -90.30 | 2019 |
This inconsistent P/E ratio of Tesla suggests its stock needs to be lowered compared to its recent performance. Can we expect a lower price-to-earnings ratio in the upcoming years? It is hard to predict, but Tesla must balance it to win investor confidence.
So, my prediction on Tesla stock would be neutral here.
Tesla PEG ratio?
Tesla’s PEG ratio seems worse in the early two years. It doesn’t show a positive correlation between market price & projected growth. A PEG ratio below one is considered optimistic, closer to 1 is considered good & over one is considered bad for stock investment.
Tesla significantly improved its PEG ratio from 2021 to 2022, but 2023 shows a rise. Maybe Tesla faced some macroeconomic crises that were hard to overcome for Tesla.
| PEG ratio | Years |
| 2.91 | 2023 |
| 1.08 | 2022 |
| 1.29 | 2021 |
| 8.24 | 2020 |
| -1.65 | 2019 |
Can we expect better in the upcoming years? Well, that depends on many factors. However, the PEG ratio is just one financial parameter that can’t display accurate stock prices solely.
So, my forecast on Tesla stock would be neutral here.
Tesla EPS?
Tesla’s EPS ratio indicates challenges that are hard to manage. Its EPS is below 10, which suggests Tesla’s continued struggle to be a profitable company. But Tesla is a growing tech, so they perhaps reinvest its profit to expand the market.
Tesla is a renewable energy-based company & not a single nation is independent from others.
| GAAP EPS ($) | Years |
| 2.60 | 2023 |
| 3.62 | 2022 |
| 1.63 | 2021 |
| 0.21 | 2020 |
| -1.07 | 2019 |
Tesla may be faced with a supply crisis or buying resources with higher prices that imbalance their earning vs. expenses. Can we expect a long-term crisis? Well, that depends on many international investment factors such as geopolitics & government policies.
Therefore, my prediction of Tesla’s stock price would be neutral.
Tesla price to sales ratio?
Tesla’s price-to-sales ratio doesn’t perform well compared to its competitors. The P/S ratio of Tesla fluctuates often & it doesn’t fall under the safe range. It indicates weak financial health & potential risk for stock investment.
| P/S ratio (TTM) | Years |
| 9.02 | 2023 |
| 4.77 | 2022 |
| 19.70 | 2021 |
| 21.20 | 2020 |
| 1.37 | 2019 |
Investors have confidence in Tesla; that’s why they pay more for $1 earning. Tesla is suffering from reinvestment or has some limitations that stop it from expanding the market. If this continues, then investors will lose confidence & ultimately, Tesla stock may crash.
| P/S ratio (TTM) | Years |
| 0.26 | 2023 |
| 0.34 | 2022 |
| 0.34 | 2021 |
| 0.33 | 2020 |
| 0.17 | 2019 |
However, the P/S ratio of General Motors & Volkswagen, two rivals of Tesla, perform financially well & successfully capture more of the market. Their P/S ratio indicates a lower charge against $1 earned, which is good for stock investment.
| P/S ratio (TTM) | Years |
| 0.20 | 2023 |
| 0.32 | 2022 |
| 0.44 | 2021 |
| 0.24 | 2020 |
| 0.16 | 2019 |
But this doesn’t indicate that Tesla will not be a profitable stock. Tesla is a growing EV company & it is natural to face such type of challenges. The most important point is that Tesla has a good industrial trend, which helps them to overcome these short-term limitations. Therefore, my forecast of Tesla’s stock price would be neutral.
Tesla ratio analysis?
The return on Equity ratio for Tesla is above 20%, which indicates they successfully invested stockholders’ investments to generate more profit. Usually, an ROE ratio of 10 is considered reliable for an automotive company & above 20% is considered excellent.
The debt-to-Capital Ratio doesn’t seem positive for stock investment. Usually, two is considered good & above 2 indicates the company’s heavy dependence on debt. The Debt-to-Capital Ratio of Tesla is above 25%, which indicates they excessively rely on debt money. That means Tesla collected most of the cash from long-term borrowing.
| Ratios | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
| Return on equity ratio (%) | 25 | 22.4 | 38 | 41.6 | 27.1 |
| Debt-to-Capital Ratio (%) | 25.9 | 26.4 | 27.3 | 28.1 | 38.2 |
| Operating Margin ratio (%) | 33 | 32.2 | 32.8 | 33.6 | 29.1 |
| Enterprise Value to EBIT | 40.1 | 42.7 | 45.7 | 49.3 | 53.6 |
| Interest Coverage Ratio | 13.2 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 11 | 7.1 |
| Acid test ratio | 2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
The operating margin ratio seems stable & promising for stock investment. Usually, ten is considered good for the tech & automotive industry, where Tesla has above 25%. This higher margin indicates their strong ability to pay direct & indirect expenses.
Tesla’s Enterprise Value to EBIT ratio is not positive for stock investment. Usually, ten is considered good & above, which indicates overvaluation of stock. Tesla must reduce it to balance stock valuation; otherwise, it will lose investors’ confidence.
Tesla’s interest coverage ratio seems strong enough to pay debt obligations. Its rising Interest Coverage Ratio suggests enough operating income to meet interest expense, which is good for stock investment.
The acid test ratio dictates a solid liquidity position to meet the quick liability. That means Tesla has enough ready-to-use cash to maintain operational activity.
Tesla’s ratio statement has a mixed pattern, which doesn’t signal a positive for stock investment. So, based on ratio performance, my prediction on Tesla stock would be neutral again.
Tesla income statement?
Tesla’s income statement shows promising growth. Its sales increased at a fast pace & continuously dominated the EV market. Net income increased by 13x over five years with sales.
It dictates solid financial performance & growing investor confidence.
| Sales revenue (million$) | Gross margin (million$) | Operating Profit (million$) | Net Income (million$) | Years |
| 87,000 | 22,100 | 11,000 | 8,200 | 2023 |
| 81,462 | 21,282 | 8,215 | 5,519 | 2022 |
| 53,823 | 16,134 | 5,525 | 4,836 | 2021 |
| 31,536 | 8,053 | 3,927 | 2,555 | 2020 |
| 24,578 | 5,278 | 1,662 | 619 | 2019 |
Can Tesla continue this trend for the long term? The income statement indicates yes, but this is just one measurement metric. A successful stock investment depends on both qualitative & quantitative performance. So, based on accounting data, my forecast on Tesla stock would be neutral.
Tesla cash flow statement?
Tesla’s cash flow statement shows strong financial solvency over the years. Its operating expenses rise, which indicates a growing business.
Investing activities signal an increased number of projects that help them capture more of the market. Tesla manages enough funds for long-term investment, but how they collect that’s a question. It could be from long-term loans or by selling EV products.
Financing activities show promising growth, but it could be from stock selling or debt. For the last two years, Tesla stock has been too pricy. So, they may be accumulating huge cash from dividends or borrowing.
| Operating Activities (billion$) | Investing Activities (Billion$) | Financing Activities (billion$) | Net Cash Flow (billion$) | Years |
| 31.70 | (7.50) | 5 | 19.20 | 2023 |
| 14.72 | (7.17) | 2.90 | 10.45 | 2022 |
| 11.49 | (8.01) | 5.38 | 8.86 | 2021 |
| 5.94 | (3.24) | 3.92 | 6.62 | 2020 |
| 2.75 | (1.43) | 2.48 | 3.80 | 2019 |
Net cash increased significantly over the five years, which shows strong financial solvency to meet operating expenses. This net cash also suggests safe investment, i.e., there is little chance for Tesla to be bankrupt in the future.
Though Tesla has positive trends in the long term, it also fluctuates in 2023. Maybe Tesla faces more expenses than sales revenue. But it doesn’t seem to have a long-term effect. Rather, Tesla has enough capability to overcome it within a short time.
So, based on the above-mixed result, my prediction on Tesla stock would be neutral.
Tesla stock price chart?
Tesla stock didn’t perform well initially but started to rise from 2021 to 2022. Covid-19 slightly affects EV manufacturing, but rising expense is the main barrier for electric vehicles.
Tesla faced difficulty with raw material shortages & high labor costs, which forced them to hike prices more than fuel cars. The government also needs to provide more subsidies for EV & people don’t find EVs at affordable prices.
Battery technology also negatively impacts Tesla’s stock price. To beat gasoline cars, Tesla must upgrade batteries to increase driving distance at a competitive price.
As macroeconomic factors negatively impacted Tesla, its share started to fall in 2023 but recovered after the first quarter. This regrowth pattern indicates a positive share price, but Tesla wasn’t able to fix it at a stable level. So, Tesla must enter into a new market by targeting cheap resources & labor, which will make EVs more affordable.
In short, affordable price & battery technology are two key factors that will decide the fate of Tesla stock. If Tesla becomes successful, then it would be a profitable stock. So, my prediction on Tesla stock price would be neutral again.
Tesla balance sheet?
Tesla’s balance sheet suggests a strong financial position over five years. Its current assets increased more than current liabilities, which means more cash than short-term obligations. Fixed assets against long-term liabilities seem stronger & suggest the company’s gains from capital expenditure.
| Heads | 2023 (million$) | 2022 (million$) | 2021 (million$) | 2020 (million$) | 2019 (million$) |
| Total Assets | 82,338 | 62,131 | 52,148 | 34,309 | 16,126 |
| Current Assets | 35,410 | 28,089 | 20,940 | 12,144 | 7,408 |
| Non-current Assets | 46,928 | 34,042 | 31,208 | 22,165 | 8,718 |
| Total Liabilities & Net Marginal Interest | 36,440 | 30,548 | 28,469 | 26,199 | 15,246 |
| Current Liabilities | 22,073 | 17,088 | 14,279 | 10,930 | 7,832 |
| Long-term liabilities & Net Marginal Interest | 14,367 | 13,460 | 14,190 | 15,269 | 7,414 |
| Total Equity (Gross marginal Interest) | 45,898 | 31,583 | 23,679 | 8,110 | 880 |
| Common Stock Equity | 44,704 | 30,189 | 22,225 | 6,618 | 661 |
Tesla’s equity indicates that it has expanded its market gradually with investors’ confidence. Their common stock numbers increased significantly over the five years, showing growing customer acceptability.
Tesla’s balance sheet shows strong potential for stock growth, but we could not assume a 100x return based on historical balance sheet data. The prediction on Tesla stock would be positive.
Electric vehicle sales?
The global Electric vehicle sales forecast shows positive trends year by year. Ev’s initial journey was $44.7 billion in sales, but after eight years, grows about 1155% market revenues, which is a surprising increase.
Can we expect similar trends in the upcoming years? A study conducted by Statista finds similar trends & forecasts double pace growth. Statista projected a $906.7 billion EVs market expansion from 2024 to 2028 & if this happens, then EVs will be half of the total global car. Goldman Sachs predicted that Electric vehicles would be double-digit global sales growth. Goldman Sachs emphasizes enough government support, such as tax incentives & charging station facilities, for such expansion.
Another study conducted on global EV sales by international energy agencies also backed similar growth. The study forecasts a significant market rise from 2020 to 2030 in 6 regions: China, Europe, America, Japan, India & others. This regional EV market also signals an indirect threat, which is geopolitical conflict. Therefore, stable relations among this country would be a precondition for further EV market sales.
If the above factors go positively, then it will help Tesla to capture the new market. Tesla has strong brand value for EVs, which also helps to grow stock prices. So, my prediction for Tesla stock would be positive here.
Renewable energy market size?
The Renewable energy market chart shows steady growth over the years. These positive trends suggest growing demand against limited supply. Many countries, including the USA, are now thinking of clean energy as an alternative to gasoline.
Renewable energy can lower the negative effects of climate change because people will move to eco-friendly products. But adaptability & government policies become a question.
A study conducted by precedence research forecast 8.5% CAGR worldwide growth from 2023 to 2032. They predicted every segment’s expansion of clean energy & suggested Europe would be a growing market for that.
We can also see a similar trend from the chart: a speedy market expansion. It means that renewable energy-based companies such as Tesla will get acquisition, third-party funding & government policies that indirectly signal a huge boom.
However, we are facing many challenges due to inflation & war tension. War conflict could have a neutral effect on the clean energy industry, but economic sanctions could harm it. Single nations don’t solely dominate the energy-based renewable sector. Rather, it has grown in multiple countries.
For example, China is a major clean energy market & India is also growing. USA or Tesla must look into a safe manufacturing zone to avoid such type of risks. Therefore, my forecast would be neutral for Tesla’s stock price.
Tesla market cap?
Tesla’s market cap has a positive trend & projected significant growth in 2024. This market cap pattern signals Tesla’s dominating power for EV products. But 2023 indicates a fall, which means Tesla lost the market from the previous two years. We can’t predict why, but we can estimate political instability & high inflation.
Experts don’t think electric vehicles are going to die. Rather, they predict significant regrowth. EVs have market demand, but lack of external support hinders expansion. However, we have yet to learn how inflation hit the Tesla market, but limited charging stations for EVs could be a reason for the market cap falling.
Geopolitics?
Geopolitical risk can impact EV market growth. EV has two challenges: cheap resources & political support. The US depends on other countries for raw materials (copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth metals), such as Africa & China. The USA is gradually losing its control of Africa & China significantly grows geopolitical influence on African Union countries.
Can the USA fix the political crisis with China? I don’t think so, but if they fix it, then it will take a long time.
In the graph, we can see that the battery production for EVs heavily depends on China. China not only increased production capacity but also expanded the EV market.
For example, NIO, a Chinese EV firm, continuously experiments to increase battery capacity. Nio Inc. recently updated battery technology that can go 1000km with a single charge & NIO is planning to expand its coverage.
Therefore, it would be difficult for Tesla to keep its top position as an EV company because geopolitics also helps other companies to be Tesla’s rivals.
Tesla must find an alternative for China, such as India, to be a giant EV company.
Another factor is Oil, Gas, and auto lobbies who campaign for fuel cars. Many companies will die if Tesla starts mass production of electric vehicles. You may ask why because these cars can move from fuel to electricity.
It is not like a technology transfer but rather changing consumer behavior. People heavily adopt fuel cars, so it takes time to accept EVs. Oil nations have a strong lobby in Western countries, which could also become a barrier to EV production.
In short, EV faced two political crises: internal & external. We can’t predict how government policies will help Tesla overcome these challenges, so my forecast would be neutral here.
Tesla competitors electric car?
Tesla has to face two major rivals: General Motors & Volkswagen Group. It seems challenging for Tesla to beat. Rather, keeping the current position would take a lot of work. Competitors seem successful in better battery capacity with lower car prices, or perhaps customers consider Tesla is not better in price compared to others.
| Competitors | Global market share (%) |
| Tesla | 12.3 |
| General Motors | 10.2 |
| BYD | 9 |
| Volkswagen Group | 8.2 |
| Stellantis Group | 7 |
| Hyundai Motor Group | 6.5 |
| Rivian | 2.5 |
| Lucid Motors | 1.5 |
| Waymo (Alphabet) | 0.5 |
| Cruise (GM subsidiary) | 0.2 |
Tesla is a young company with an exceptional leadership team that could bring revolution. We have no serious internal management conflict data for Tesla, which means stable management. But we can’t assume that your investment in Tesla stock will give you a 100x return based on the above facts. So, my prediction on Tesla’s stock price would be positive, not optimistic.
Tesla stock forecast?
Tesla has good potential to grow in the long term, but some limitations stop its stock from that. Some risks will work against growth, and some favorable factors will help Tesla to boom.
Tesla’s risk factors include resource shortage, geopolitical conflict, inflation, and competitors.
So, Tesla has four risk factors & 6 favorable factors. Inflation & competitors’ risks may be solved within the mid-term, but Resource shortages and geopolitical conflict will take longer than expected.
Risk score= Favorable factors × risk factors
= 6 × 4
= 24
Growth score= 100-24
=76
So, Tesla stock will maximum down (long-term) =Current stock price- Current stock price × 24%
= $248.48 – $248.48 × 24%
= $248.48 – $59.6352
= $188.8448
Tesla stock will maximum up (long-term) =Current stock price + Current stock price × 76%
= $248.48 + $248.48 × 76%
= $248.48 + $188.8448
= $437.3248
Tesla has mid-term & long-term risks & based on the risk nature; the stock price could vary slightly. Below are the table details on Tesla stock price.
| Years | Price (Min) | Price (Max) | Certainty level | Risk level | Risk recovery (%) |
| 2024 | $223.63 | $273.328+ | 60% | 40% | 10 |
| 2025 | $272.64468 | $286.9944+ | 60% | 40% | 5 |
| 2026 | $286.276 | $301.34412+ | 60% | 40% | 5 |
| 2027 | $302.29 | $331.478+ | 60% | 40% | 10 |
| 2028 | $316.35 | $364.626+ | 60% | 40% | 10 |
| 2029 | $362.84 | $390.15+ | 60% | 40% | 7 |
| 2030 | $386.248 | $429.165+ | 60% | 40% | 10 |
Buy Tesla stock on Etoro?
Etoro is a user-friendly trading platform that charges comparatively lower fees without commission. You can use Dextop or apps, i.e., they have both PC & mobile versions for stock or bitcoin exchange. Etoro can handle heavy workflow. So, don’t worry about healthy charting capabilities.
Below are the steps that describe how a tyro trader can buy Tesla stock on Etoro.
Step-1: Accounts opening
If you already have an Etoro account, sign up for the next steps. I have assumed that you don’t have an account & a novice trader.
Etoro will ask basic questions, including your social security number, to identify you. The SEC requires What Etoro asks, so don’t worry about that.
You can also sign up by Facebook or Google email as your preference. To protect your privacy, you should open an Etoro account using your email ID. After giving all the information, you must accept the terms & conditions.
Step-2: Verifications
Now, you must upload a government-issued photo ID and proof of address to verify your identity with regulations. You have to do KYC & Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulations also.
Step-3: Deposit funds
Now you have to deposit some money for stock trading. Etoro provides payment options like bank transfers, credit cards, and e-wallets. You can deposit $10 to buy partial Tesla stock or current Tesla stock price for trading. But if you are financially strong, try to deposit $500 for the PayPal payment option.
For example, wire transfers need a minimum deposit of $500. So, you can’t activate Tesla share trading with $10 if you use PayPal.
Step-4: Search for Tesla
In the etoro search bar (top of the page), type stock symbol, i.e., Tesla” or “TSLA,” to find out Tesla stock.
Step-5: Buy tesla stock
You can choose market or limit order options to buy Tesla stock. A market order will buy your desired number of stocks with the current market price, whereas the limit will only buy if your price matches.
Step-6: Review
Before submitting, carefully analyze everything that you have given. Check associated trading fees or how comfortable you are with the given price.
Step-7: Hit submit button
If everything is okay, submit the “Buy” button to process your order. If there are no network issues, the process will be complete immediately. Otherwise, it could take some time. So, be patient.
Concluding Thought
Tesla is a growing stock & it is expected to grow further in the upcoming days. It has some challenges, but that doesn’t mean stocks will crash. Every stock has limitations & it is natural to have some. EVs are going to remove about 50% of fuel cars by 2030 & it is expected more government subsidies will lower prices.
My analysis indicates positive but not bullish on the Tesla share price forecast. Some Asian EV firms could be rivals to the Tesla market, such as Nio Inc., a Chinese EV firm.
So, it is hard to predict that only Western nations will dominate the electric vehicle market. Rather, it could expand in China & India also.
Therefore, my final thought on Tesla’s share price forecast would be to buy stock for the long term, but if you are looking for a 100x dividend within a short time, then no.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Tesla stock split history?
Tesla split its stock two times to increase its shareholder numbers. Usually, too-pricy shares could discourage mass investors from buying Tesla stock, which reduces liquid money for the company. Another reason is that splitting stock will increase the adaptability of Tesla products, which will help them to expand the market.
Below, the table shows Tesla’s stock split history.
| Split ratio | Years |
| 3:1 | Aug. 25, 2022 |
| 5:1 | Aug. 31, 2020 |
Will tesla stock split again?
There has yet to be an official announcement for the future stock split, but if Tesla stock becomes too pricy, then it could split.
EV is a trending industry that has enough potential to grow in the upcoming time. However, security has become a major barrier to the acceptability of electric vehicles. Another factor is geopolitical; Western countries are trying hard to limit their dependence on energy-based economic countries. All these reasons indicate potential growth for Tesla stock & if it becomes successful, then Tesla stock has a chance to split.
How many shares outstanding does Tesla have?
Tesla has 3,176,000,000 shares outstanding (Based on the article’s writing date, January 1, 2024). The numbers outstanding stock are not fixed & can change due to employee stock options & share split.
Tesla dividend history?
Tesla has no history of paying dividends & there is no official announcement for future pay. No dividend doesn’t mean Tesla doesn’t make enough profit to pay; instead, they focus on long-term growth. Usually, mid-aged companies make such strategic decisions if they find enough trends for future growth.
So, if you are thinking of buying Tesla stock, you have to understand that, in short, its price may fluctuate, but in the long term, you have a better chance for a good profit.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this article is author’s view & only for educational purposes. Also, the intention of this article is not hurting any stock analyst. This is not a sponsor post & not an investment advice. Do your research before making any important financial decision. Therefore, FinanceIdeas.org will not be liable for your financial loss.
