Rivian stock price prediction: Is This the NEXT Tesla?

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Rivian stock price prediction is bullish, according to prominent analysts. Analysts, including Cathie Wood, emphasize clean energy growth. EV cars have a growing demand, but will they help Rivian become one of the outperforming stocks?

As a stock investor, you are asking whether Rivian stock is a good investment, like Tesla or Nio, which is usual. Could Rivian stock be a dominating company like BYD?

 Stock performance is associated with many factors & negative performances of any variable could lower the overall price. 

Are you interested in knowing the details of these factors? What would be the Rivian stock prediction in the long term? If you answer yes, this article will guide you through everything. Are you ready?

Let’s start with the following. 

Key takeaways:

  • Rivian stock will not crash, but expecting high return would be bullish.
  • Geopolitically, Rivian is facing challenges which could lower stock prices.
  • Rivian must emphasize product line & offer better battery capacity with competitive price.
  • Rivian needs more sales to generate profit, which will help to improve operating efficiency.
  • Rivian will not be Tesla or BYD but could be a profitable stock.  

Rivian stock pe ratio?

Rivian’s P/E ratio is inconsistent with prior years. It fluctuates & doesn’t show recovery trends, which is unfavorable for stock investment. 

Rivian’s negative ratio indicates poor performance against price. Can Rivian stock recover from it? It is hard to predict because we have no signal for that. 

Now, you may think Rivian stock is negative & it is the best time to buy it. You are right because value investment suggests buying a stock lower than its intrinsic value. 

However, a negative stock price could lead to a potential stock crash. There is a difference between undervalued & negative stock value.

P/E ratioYears
Rivian stock pe ratio  

Let’s understand it from the following scenario, 

The intrinsic value of Rivian stock is $47.59 & the current market price is $19.08. So, Rivian stock is down more than 59%, which doesn’t fall within the standard range of 20% to 30%. Usually, 10 to 20 % is considered a good point to buy stock, but up to 30% is also acceptable for the automotive or tech industry. A negative stock price indicates more than 31% down from its book value, which could lead to bankruptcy

However, history indicates stock became successful from a negative price. Can you remember Ford Motor shares below $1 stock due to heavy competition & 2009 recession? Later, Ford Motor managed costs & increased sales & became a profitable stock. 

Can Rivian stock recover the above massive gap soon? It is hard to say, but it is possible because it has some dedicated management.

P/B ratio?

The P/B ratio of Rivian stock shows a fluctuating pattern, which indicates a significant price gap between intrinsic & market. Usually, a P/B ratio of 1 to 3 means the stock is selling around the safe book value of the company. Rivian balances its P/B ratio in 2022 but again loses control in 2023, which means its stock is selling at a higher premium than the current price.

P/B ratioYears
P/B ratio

The P/B ratio is calculated without intangible assets, which could imbalance the book value ratio. However, Rivian must balance the P/B ratio; otherwise, potential investors may think its stock is going to crash.

So, the upcoming time will say how Rivian decreased its P/B ratio to lower negative hype.

Rivian PEG ratio?

The PEG ratio of Rivian stock started with positive but decreased over time & became negative. Usually, a PEG ratio of 1 indicates safe stock investment, but a negative could lead to a potential crash. 

PEG ratioYears
Rivian PEG ratio

However, it is hard to predict that Rivian will not come back. Chinese firms gradually started to dominate the EV market. So, there is no guarantee of upholding the top position all the time.

For example, Tesla was the dominating company before 2024, but BYD suddenly became a giant EV firm. Does BYD have better management than Tesla? I don’t think so. Do geopolitics help BYD? Yes. Chinese companies are trying hard to beat US EV companies geopolitically. The US government also supports its own company to capture more of the EV market. 

So, historical performance doesn’t assure Rivian is profitable, but geopolitical has the potential to outperform.

Rivian EPS?

The EPS ratio of Rivian doesn’t seem financially solvent compared to its competitors such as Nio, BYD, and Tesla. Rivian doesn’t get enough orders to meet operating expenses. Operating efficiency indicates a balancing portion of sales & cost, whereas weak operating efficiency suggests the opposite.
Clean energy is a trending industry & upcoming time would be favorable for EV products. Rivian must find alternative market & manufacturing resources to tackle its competitors.

EPS ($)Years
– 6.472023
– 7.402022
– 22.982021
– 10.092020
Rivian EPS

Geopolitically, Rivian will face challenges due to Chinese influence.
Therefore, predicting how Rivian stock will perform in the coming years is uncertain.

Rivian P/S ratio?

Rivian P/S ratio is not better than its competitors, such as Nio or Tesla. Investors pay more money against $1 compared to their peers’ companies. Rivian is a young EV startup with an unstable performance record. Fluctuation is typical in every startup due to less market trust. Rivian has to gain market confidence by balancing the price-to-sales ratio so that investors don’t think Rivian is too expensive or undervalued. 

P/S ratio (TTM)Years
Rivian P/S ratio

However, Rivian could get momentum to grow due to the high demand for clean energy. A trending industry also indicates tough competition with potential geopolitics. The recent dominating performance of Chinese EV firms shocked every American or Western EV company. 

Therefore, EVs have become a geopolitical weapon to rule the energy world. But we can’t predict how Rivian will find competitive benefits from it. 

However, this doesn’t indicate Rivian will die shortly; instead, it suggests a possibility to give a good return on stock investment in the long term. But to be Tesla or BYD would not be easy for Rivian.

Rivian stock price history?

The Rivian stock price reached the maximum level in 2022, which could be due to external demand. Later, its stock price started to fall & continuously fluctuated up to 2023.

Price fluctuation could occur for many reasons, such as rising operating expenses, few orders, etc.

However, most of the EV face such type of challenges, so there is no competitive loss.

Rivian stock price history

Rivian is an American-based EV company. The US is dependent on EV resources from other countries. Available labor, political instability, & inflation hit Rivian, but we can’t see any recovering trends after 2023.

EV is a nation-based industry, i.e. we can’t predict America will dominate the electric vehicle market. Asia, Europe, Australia, and even Africa could develop their firm. So, it would not be easy for Tesla or BYD to keep its top position always.

Can Rivian recover from its challenges? We can’t directly predict but it hugely depends on government support.

Will the US government support EV products? Will Rivian be a nepotism company for the American government? Why does the US government support Rivian more than Tesla or BYD?

So, Rivian must answer the above questions to be a profitable stock.

Rivian ratio?

Rivian’s return on equity ratio doesn’t seems competitive enough compare to its peer companies. Rivian needs cash from long-term investments & should focus on generating profits from shareholder money. Can Rivian accomplish it? Figure suggest volatile performance i.e., it would not be easy for Rivian.  

The debt-to-capital ratio is not stable & higher than 2 which is riskier for stock investment. Rivian heavily depended on debt money which is not good for stock investment.

Can Rivian lower it to be competitive stock like Nio or Tesla? We can’t predict positive based on historical performance.

The operating margin ratio is unstable, which indicates cash shortage to meet working capital. Operating efficiency assured safe investment but the ratio performance of Rivian indicates reverse. Do Rivian have potential to overcome it latter? This is a matter of management effort, so we can’t be bullish.

Rivian’s Enterprise Value to EBIT ratio is reducing over time but negative. The stock price of Rivian is not stable than competitors. Rivian gradually losing investors confidence which could create a competitive advantage for competitors.  

Return on equity ratio (%)-43.52-42-51.70
Debt-to-Capital Ratio (%)30.7668.210.08
Operating Margin ratio (%)-107.70-88.99-113.09
Enterprise Value to EBIT-3.66-15.31-8.40
Interest Coverage Ratio-33.14-66.67-145.52
Acid test ratio4.614.8113.83
Rivian ratio

Rivian’s interest coverage ratio is not solvent to pay current liabilities. Rivian financially struggles to pay its interest expense. Can Rivian beat Nio or BYD? EV is a trending industry where no brand can dominate lifetime? So, yes possible but it would be challenging to achieve.

The quick ratio of Rivian doesn’t meet standard value 1:1. Rivian generate fewer liquid assets against quick liabilities which indicate weaker solvency. Rivian also lags behind from competitive EV company which indicate poor performance.

The ratio statement of Rivian stock showed negative performance. However, historical performance doesn’t assure future profitability. Now we are facing a different world where geopolitics play a significant role for successful stock investment. Therefore, I am not bullish on Rivian stock price but have positive price forecast.  

Rivian Income statement?

Rivian has a negative income statement, indicating poor performance against cost. Negative financial performance is typical among young tech companies. 

However, Rivian’s sales dropped about 50% from last year, which indicates limited market accessibility. Will Rivian be able to expand the market in the upcoming years? Well, it depends on management dedication. 

EV cars are now facing charging problems in cold countries. Can Rivian develop an updated battery that can take charge in minus temperature (-30 degree Celsius)? Can Rivian manage low-cost resources? 

Sales revenue (million $)Gross loss (million $)Operating loss (million $)Net loss (million $)Years
Rivian Income statement  

We can’t be bullish on these questions & Rivian must answer these questions well.

Price is another factor determining market acceptability & the past performance of Rivian doesn’t suggest their ability to sell EV cars at a lower price. Rivian doesn’t indicate any positive sign to perform better to match its competitors. 

Now, it is usual to question Rivian stock price. Should you buy it or look for alternative EV stock?

A negative income statement doesn’t indicate a stock collapse. The income statement is just one parameter that can’t display complete future profitability.

The clean energy industry has become a political war between the USA & China. So, America will likely make policies to favor its own company. If the US doesn’t do it, Chinese EV firms will dominate the EV car market. If this happens, this will be a political failure for the USA & win for China.

Accounting data or past performance will not be single metrics; instead, geopolitics determines mainly the future performance of Rivian stock.

So, my prediction on Rivian stock price would be neutral. 

Rivian Cash flow statement?

Rivian’s Cash flow statement doesn’t indicate a positive sign for stock investment. Rivian must improve operating efficiency to be a competitive stock. Rivian is a young, publicly listed company, so negative operating performance is usual. 

Tesla & BYD have long-term market presence & gain huge positive customer sentiment over the years. As a result, Rivian is facing tough competition to be an equivalent company like BYD. The negative investing activities of Rivian suggest the exact things, i.e., they continuously struggle to achieve investors’ confidence. 

Operating Activities (million $)Investing Activities (million $)Financing Activities (million $)Net Cash Flow (million $)Years
Rivian Cash flow statement      

Financing activities also suggest a downward trend, which indicates fewer sales against the expense. Can Rivian overcome these challenges? Well, it depends on management & government policies.

Chinese EV firms are investing hugely to improve EV cars. They are also trying to develop an air-fly EV, which indicates their big investment in the R&D segment. Usually, a company invests more in research activities if there is enough industry trend. The political cold war between the West & China is another reason to increase investment in clean energy.

In the future, not a single EV firm will dominate the market; instead, it will be diverse. Europe will develop its EV firm, America will build its own, and Africa can do so.

As a US company, Rivian can get geopolitical advantage. If this happens, then Rivian would be a profitable stock. So, my prediction of Rivian stock price would be neutral again.

Rivian balance sheet?

Rivian’s total assets have risen over two years. It has more fixed assets than current, which indicates its long-term investment. There are two reasons short-term assets decrease: less sales & heavy investment. More current assets mean solid operating solvency. Can Rivian balance liquidity solvency?

It is hard to predict a new company because every company has a life cycle. Rivian is now in its initial life cycle; for the growth stage, it needs more sales & government support policies. Rivian must expand the market with lower prices.

Heads2023 (million $)2022 (million $)
Total Assets7,9606,445
Current Assets3,1303,016
Non-current Assets4,8303,429
Total Liabilities5,3975,035
Current Liabilities2,6242,424
Non-Current Liabilities2,7732,611
Total Equity2,5631,410
Rivian balance sheet

EVs have become a competitive industry now. So, every EV firm invests a considerable amount in battery technology. If Rivian becomes successful, then its price will rise.

The total equity of Rivian is also rising slightly, which shows some investor’s confidence. Rivian must perform better to increase shareholders’ confidence. Can Rivian do that? It is a matter of management. If Rivian doesn’t face internal management conflict & works hard for long-term growth, it is possible to achieve

Therefore, my analysis is neutral on Rivian stock price.  

Rivian automotive stock prediction?

Rivian is a new company that needs more positive historical performance. Rivian doesn’t stand in a favorable condition in any matrix (accounting performance, market influence, political support).

Therefore, expecting a high return from Rivian stock would be bullish. However, if Rivian resolves the abovementioned challenges, it can grow 100x-performing stock.

Below, the table provides details on Rivian’s stock price forecast from 2024 to 2030. 

Forecasting yearsMinimum ($)Maximum ($)Certainty level (%)
Rivian automotive stock prediction

Accurate Long-term prediction for Rivian stock is difficult due to its volatile performance. My equity research assumes that Rivian has successfully addressed the drawbacks mentioned above. However, on average, Rivian’s stock price would remain the same as my analysis, i.e., my study considers only Rivian’s possible accomplishments.

Concluding Thought

EV car has a promising future, but modify is a word often “obsolete” in previous concepts. Don’t be confused with that word; I am not talking about depreciation. Technology is a volatile industry where innovation is expected. 

Therefore, product modification would be a new factor in deciding EV stock price. How? Have you ever compared hydrogen cars & electric cars? If yes, then which one would you buy?

Rivian must diversify its product pool to meet unique demands. If they do, it would not be surprising that Rivian will be the top EV stock. 

But we can’t predict how the management of Rivian will grow their market. So, my prediction on Rivian stock would be a mid-term buy. 

Frequently asked Questions (FAQ)

Is Rivian stock a buy?

Yes, if you are looking for a moderate return. Rivian’s performance could be volatile due to the new face in the EV market. 

Is Rivian stock a buy

However, my rating would be 60% for mid-term investment and 40% for long-term investment.

Does Rivian stock pay dividends?

No. Rivian doesn’t pay dividends & there is no official announcement to pay in the future.

Rivian is a new company trying hard to capture the EV market. So, they reinvest profits to expand the market domain. 

However, dividend pay is a volatile decision, so any time management can change their mind & pay dividends. 


The information provided in this article is author’s view & only for educational purposes. Also, the intention of this article is not hurting any stock analyst. This is not a sponsor post & not an investment advice. Do your research before making any important financial decision. Therefore, FinanceIdeas.org will not be liable for your financial loss.


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